Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United have been one of the most tactically rigid team to break down over the course of last year. They currently sit 3^rd in the table, 6 points ahead of Tottenham Hotspurs (who they recently thrashed 6-1) with a game in hand.  Having been appointed at the back of a Saudi takeover, Eddie Howe has implemented a philosophy of positional discipline, numerical advantages in wide spaces as well as expansive football with possessional domination. What he has done in the span of a year has been nothing short of impressive and extraordinary. Newcastle United are now considered serious contenders to be in the top 4 at the end of the season and their road to Champions League football has taken a major fast track.

However, injuries and suspension to key players such as Bruno Guimaraes, Nick Pope and Miguel Almiron within the last two months has given oppositions chance to exploit Newcastle’s lack of depth and cover in important positions. And despite having the 4^th highest Expected Goals (xG) i.e., 58.79, Newcastle have only scored 54 goals in the Premier League this season. Their underperformance in attack however contrasts their overperformance in defence since they have only conceded 25 goals from an Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 34.18.

The gap in xG and xGA suggests that despite a more than impressive first full season, Eddie Howe’s team are not in a “false position” and 3^rd or 4^th is exactly where they should be at this point in the season. With the likes of Liverpool and Brighton looming earlier on in the season as well as fitness issues to certain key players, there were growing concerns of whether Newcastle could continue to reach their objective of being a in the top 6 by the end of the season. However, Howe’s group have managed to successfully put those doubts under bed as they are predicted to join Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United for next season’s UEFA Champions League, despite having one of the toughest fixtures towards the tail end of the season.

Liverpool and Chelsea, who have underperformed this season, are likely to strengthen over the summer transfer window along with other top prospect clubs like Tottenham, Aston Villa and Brighton and Hove Albion. Taking these factors into consideration, Newcastle United have to be smart and steady with their recruitment in the summer in order to continue their progress without the need for hasty splashing of cashes on players that do not fit the system. This has prompted me to write a tactical report on Newcastle United and a list out potential profiles required to further strengthen their stance in competing amongst the best teams in Europe.

Tactical Analysis:

Eddie Howe prefers his to set up in a typical 4-3-3 with high pressing number 8s in Longstaff and Joelinton. Summer recruit Nick Pope starts in goal right behind a back 4 of Trippier, Schar, Botman and Burn. With an absense of a natural no.6 in the squad, star player Bruno Guimarães is preferred at the defensive midfield position. Newcastle’s attack has perhaps seen a number of rotations over the course of the season however Howe’s preferred front 3 comprises of Allan Saint-Maximin, Callum Wilson and Miguel Almiron.

Apart from the starting 11, Howe also relies on key influences from the bench such as the likes of Joe Willock, Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon and Jacob Murphy. All of whom bring a different profile in their respective positions.

Newcastle’s most common pattern of play involves them building from the back. They have the 7th highest possession in the league with 51.4% meaning that Eddie Howe prefers to keep control of the game by having possession of the ball. His team tends to build from the back in a 3-2 shape that evolves more into a 3-4-3 formation and eventually into a 3-2-5 with 5 players occupying all the key areas in the opposition backline (in pic). The video animation showcases how Newcastle tend to break open a rigid mid-block.

As illustrated by the video, Dan Burn largely plays as reserved left-back meaning he tends to form a back 3 with Botman and Schar when in possession. The 3 Centre-backs contribute in build-up with Bruno G. and Longstaff as the 2 in midfield. Joelinton in that left-centre midfield role is instructed to move and occupy the wide space in the middle third and the half space in the attacking third. Similarly, Almiron tucks in and occupies the right half space, allowing Kieran Trippier to move further forward and pinning the opposition backline further into their own defensive third. This not only creates space in the centre of the pitch for Bruno G. to thrive in, it also allows little chance for the opposition to gain control of the ball by pressing in the middle third.

Another key pattern of play that Newcastle display is creating numerical superiority and overloads in the wide areas in order to stretch the opposition lines and generate gaps in their blocks. Through these triangles in wide areas, Newcastle look to open up space on the opposite side of the pitch for their wingers Saint-Maximin and Almiron, the latter of whom specialises in 1v1 situations.

While there is versatality in the personnels on the right hand-side when it comes to the attributes that Almiron and Trippier bring, Joelinton or Joe Willock are largely responsible for acting as the extra man on the left wing as showcased in the video animation above. On the right handside, Sean Longstaff has an important role of occupying the right half-space as well as providing cover at right back when Trippier commits himself forward.

Kieran Trippier has the 4th most big chances (20) created in the Premier League sitting only behind Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne (28), Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (23) and Liverpool’s Alexander Arnold (21). The next highest chance creator for Newcastle is Joe Willock who sits in the 12th position with 10 chances created throughout the Premier League season. Tripper is one of the most, if not the most, important cog in the Newcastle wheel. This indicates that the burden of creating key chances for the team falls on just one player which is not ideal for a team looking to compete at the highest levels.

Another important cog in the Newcastle wheel is Brazilian midfielder Bruno Guimarães. Bruno was one of the most sought-after all-rounded midfielders in Ligue 1 and has brought his consistency and form to the Premier League. According to his stats on Fbref, he stands in the top 6% of midfielders in the world for goals scored per 90 minutes. Similarly, he produces 1.53 passes into the penalty area per 90 and 1.57 successful take-ons per 90 which is in the top 9% and the top 6% amongst midfielders respectively. However, the most impressive statistics that highlight Bruno’s all roundedness are his defensive statistics. He ranks in the top 10% of midfielders in tackles per 90 minutes and in the top 3% for tackles in the middle 3rd. Bruno G. is a player who is important in Newcastle’s each phase of play in and out of possession, and without him there is a big drop in quality.

So now that we briefly know how Newcastle United operate on the ball, let’s have a look at the positions that need upgrading and the profile of players that are most suitable for those positions. I recognise that Newcastle will also require upgrade at centre back positions and better depth to deputise Kieran Trippier, however, the positions and profile discussed seem more important and impactful for the team in the short term as well as the long term.

Left-Back:

The left back position at Newcastle is one that is bound to create various debates regarding the profile that will best be suited for Eddie Howe’s 11. Currently, the toons employ 3 players designated at the position in Dan Burn, Matt Targett and Jamal Lewis. Former two being Howe’s first signings at the club. Neither have particularly set the world alight while Dan Burn has clearly made the position his own. Jamal Lewis, on the other hand, has been given only 8 minutes this season and gone further down the pecking order

Dan Burn started the season deputising for new signing Sven Botman. Later, he was made to be the make-shift left-back while Targett recovered from a 2-week injury, however a heel injury to Targett that kept him out for months meant that Burn was to play in the left back position as his own. Defensively that has not been an issue as Burn has been one of the best defensive left backs in the league with high success rate in tackles, interceptions and aerial duels. That being said, Burn took away the dynamism on the left hand-side provided by a natural full-back like Targett in the second-half of last season.

Keeping this in mind, I have managed to shortlist three players best suited for the role at Left-back for Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United who will look to improve on what Dan Burn and Matt Targett bring to the table. The first two being suitable options and the third player being the recommended one.

Option 1: Borna Sosa

After revealing his desire to play in the Premier League, many English suitors have tried to sign the Croatian-international since July 2022, Newcastle United being one of them. And there is clear indication of why that is.

Borna Sosa, 25, plays for VfB Stuttgart in Germany primarily as an advanced left-back or left-wingback. Technically very secure, Sosa excels at progressing the ball through his passes. He is also more than good enough to progressively carry the ball and even has the tendency to carry the ball infield to create space for second and third-man runs.

Sosa particularly thrives in dominating possession in the the attacking third of the field averaging 26.76 touches per 90 and 2.38 carries per 90 into the final third which both rank 93rd and 86th percentile amongst left-backs respectively.

While these are important statistical numbers that highlight Sosa’s key role in attack, we can also consider the numbers inflated due VfB Stuttgart’s 3-at-the-back set up. This means that Sosa has little defensive responsibilities with a centre back covering the space behind him and less pressure in the defensive third.

Sosa’s defensive numbers are below average even for a left-wingback. While he wins 52.9% of his aerial duels which is fine at best, Sosa manages to make only 2.38 tackles and interceptions per 90 which is very low considering his positional responsibilities off-the ball. And since Sosa has largely played as a wing-back in his career, his ball-playing abilities from the defensive and middle third can be questioned.

Taking these factors into consideration, at a market value of €20 Million, Borna Sosa would be an improvement at the left-back position for Eddie Howe’s Newcastle. However, over the course of past 12 months, we have learnt that Howe values defensive intensity from his players more than most traits. Having had a 15-month sabbatical in Spain at Real Vallecano and Atletico Madrid, Howe has prioritised the importance of ‘winning your battles’ and the value of ball recoveries. While a signing like Sosa wouldn’t guarantee that he would add flexibility to Newcastle’s side in possession and would no doubt be a net positive for the toons.

Option 2: Mathías Olivera 

Mathías Olivera, for the large part of his career, was a defensive full-back at his previous club Getafe, where he specialised in winning his duels, tackles and interceptions amongst other things. He was a player you would consider to be in the ‘Diego Simeone-mould’ of defending. Since joining Napoli in the summer of 2022, the brand of football has allowed the 25-year-old to flourish at the attacking side of his play. There has been a significant improvement in his passing and possessional play when compared to his time at Getafe. Having played second fiddle to Marco Rui for majority of this season, Olivera is slowly becoming a mainstay at a side that specialises in high-tempo, possession-based football.

Primarily, Olivera is quite safe in possession, especially from the defensive third of the pitch. Meaning that with only 4.16 progressive passes per game compared to someone like Sosa who averages 5.44 passes per game, Olivera is only above average at passing from the back. That being said, he specifically excels at passing and carrying into the final third. Compared to left-backs in the top 5 leagues in Europe, Olivera ranks in the top 13% for passes made into the final third with 4.20 passes per 90 and in the top 25% for carries made into the final third. Similarly, he also ranks quite high in touches, shot-creating actions and key passes as well. And his highest touches coming in the middle 3rd of the pitch indicates that he largely operates in the second phase of play and is much more comfortable passing when playing a high line at Napoli.

These statistics, however, are not just indicative of the players but also the team and the type of football they play in. Considering the fact that Napoli plays a high defensive line for majority of the game, it is easy to assume that Olivera is mostly safe in possession and is used for defending transitions and stopping counter-attacks. His numbers for tackles + interceptions are good i.e. 3.52 per 90. Similarly, he also thrives defensively in the middle third as he ranks in the top 5% for tackles in the middle third.

Eddie Howe would certainly welcome a player of Olivera’s profile. The Urguayan would further contribute to the defensive intensity with added on-ball dynamism that both Burn and Targett lack. Newcastle’s counter-pressing and rigidity in defence will increase in two-folds with Olivera. Howe would also value his aerial ability. That said, having only joined Napoli last summer, a move seems unlikely in the 2023 summer window. With Napoli’s primary left-back, Marco Rui, being 31 and Olivera only just becoming a regular starter, it will be hard to convince any party in Naples for a move.

What Newcastle need at left-back is a player for the future, who excels at each phase of play, has played a healthy number of minutes in senior football and would potentially go on to become a top full-back at their club. Which leads to the..

Recommended Option: Adrien Truffert

Adrien Truffert is a 21-year old French prodigy making his mark in Ligue 1 for Stade Rennais. Truffert is a regular for the Rennes club and has already had 3056 minutes under his belt this season. He made his professional debut at the age of 18 and since has held on to become a crucial member in the club squad. At 20, Truffert even got the opportunity to represent the French national team after injuries to squad members Theo Hernandez and Lucas Digne.

With Kieran Trippier responsible for progressing the ball and attacking from the right flank, Truffert will add balance by adding progressive width to the left hand-side. Truffert’s ability to carry the ball is one of the best in Europe with 2.72 progressive carries per game.

Another aspect that puts a stronger case for Truffert is his defensive intensity and possessional value. His numbers for key defensive statistics such as tackles + interception, percentage of dribblers tackled and blocks are very high. While this is inflated due to Stade Rennas’ playing style, it showcases what Truffert brings to the table. Possession wise, he averages 2.39 carries into the final third per game which ranks him in the top 13% of left backs.

Truffert’s addition to the team could see Newcastle be far more flexible with their attack and add variations and combination on the left hand-side which they currently lack. Trippier, who also excels at passing progressively from the defensive third, can be allowed to sit back during build-up and let the midfielders and wingers occupy key attacking spaces. This would also allow Truffert to occupy the wide spaces in the middle third where he truly thrives. The Frenchman has high number of touches in the middle and the attacking third, with an average of 56.19 touches per game.

Taking Stade Rennais’s pragmatic style of play into consideration, these are very favourable numbers for a left-back whose primary role in the team is to be defensively sound and attack mostly in transitions. Truffert is someone you’d call the ‘jack of all trades and master of none’ when it comes being a quality left-back. His playing style is very reminiscent of Andrew Robertson from Liverpool, meaning he excels at combining his aggressivity with progressive actions. A player who could get into any squad in Europe and make a significant difference.

His game is evidently still very raw, but under the right environment, there is so much potential to become one of the best left-backs in the game. It’s safe to say with proactive signings such as the likes of Trippier, Bruno G., Anthony Gordon and Isak, Howe values all-rounder profiles that provide more than a single function to the team and Truffert would fit right in this Newcastle team like a hand to a glove.

Centre Midfielder

Bruno Guimarães was one of Newcastle’s priority signings after Eddie Howe was first appointed as manager in November 2021. The Brazilian, along with englishman Kieran Trippier, went on to become crucial assets to the way Newcastle United set up today. Without one or both, the team shows signs of their former underperforming selves. Bruno has been one of the most influential players in possession from the middle of the pitch. To the point that he has been such an all-rounder for the team both in attack and defence.

Bruno G, Joe Willock, Joelinton, Sean Longstaff and Elliot Anderson compete for the three key positions in the middle of the park, all three positions carrying a different role and responsibility while each player adding a unique set of skill to it. Amongst these players, you could argue that Bruno and Longstaff are the only natural midfielders who could operate in both sides of the pitch, with Joelinton coming a close third.

Ideally, Howe would want to increase the quality and depth in this group. Whether that’s by having cover for Bruno’s spot or by adding a more rounded box-to-box threat in the starting 11 in place of Longstaff, that is based on what Howe and his coaching staff prioritise. That said, it is important to keep in mind that one of Newcastle’s key off-ball movement includes heavy defensive work rate from their number 8s.

Taking these factors into consideration the following is a list of three midfield profiles for Newcastle that could further elevate their midfield in and out of possession. While all three are analysed and considered based on their varying profiles, price and potential, the third option is the recommended one.

Option 1: Roméo Lavia

Southampton have had a more than underwhelming season that has seen them in a tense relegation battle . In the midst of their chaos, Roméo Lavia has one been of the few saving graces in the squad.

The 19-year-old was one of Southampton’s most important signings in the summer of 2022, where they paid Manchester City €12.30 million for Lavia’s services. The Belgian is considered as one of the hottest prospects in Europe and came close to signing for Chelsea before joining the saints in a 5-year deal. With Southampton likely to get relegated this season, Lavia could be looking for a move to a new Premier League club and Newcastle United should be up there amongst his options.

At such a young age, Lavia has shown the maturity to be a responsible player of value for Southampton as his excellent mental strength and leadership has further added to his reputation. Lavia thrives at ball retention and progressive plays, with a knack for dribbling through when put under pressure. His biggest strength is winning his duels in the middle of the pitch and carrying the ball into dangerous areas with his through balls.

His athleticism further adds to his ability to read the game and make key interceptions. As specified in his scout report by FBref, he approximates to 4 tackles and interceptions per game for a less-dominant, underperforming Southampton side. His ability to dribble past players in midfield and draw fouls is great for building possessional momentum and retaining control. Lavia ranks in the top 5% midfielders for fouls drawn with 2.28 per game. This would be a key asset for Eddie Howe’s Newcastle side who would look to develop further as a possession-dominant side.

Lavia, however, also shows signs of inexperience and rawness that is not micro analysed at Southampton as much as it would be at a top club. While he has a high number of successful take-ons for a midfielder, his take-on success % is low at only 51.4%. Meaning that in spite of being good dribbler, Lavia tries to unsuccessfully dribble away from trouble far too much. A weakness that can be exploited at the highest of levels. Furthermore, a 2-month hamstring injury this early on in his career indicates that Lavia would need to be well-managed and rotated in a squad with higher expectations and a denser fixture list.

Lavia’s heatmap indicates that he covers a lot of ground in midfield. At Southampton, he tends to slot in between the centre backs during build-up play and out of possession he covers as much ground as he is required. His maturity allows him to be excellent at reading situations and scanning to find and create spaces for his wide players. At a market value of €25 million,  Newcastle would definitely benefit with an asset like Lavia in their team who could simply slot in as the single pivot in the midfield three while allowing Bruno G. to operate further up the pitch.

Options 2: Khéphren Thuram

Khéphren Thuram is a 22-year-old French midfielder who plays for Nice in Ligue 1. Having graduated from the youth ranks of AS Monaco, Thuram is an explosive player who is known for his box-to-box threat and dribbling ability. He has attracted interest from many Premier League clubs over the course of this season including the likes of Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspurs.

Thuram ranks in the top 1% of midfielders in progressive carries with 3.66 carries per game and 3 carries into the final third per game. Similarly, he also ranks high in carrying the ball into the box and drawing fouls. Clearly, Thuram excels at using his 6’4 stature and physicality to shield the ball while he dribbles past players, an aspect of play that he shares with someone like Joelinton.

During his Monaco days, Thuram started off as lone no.6 who would dictate the play and prevent counter attacks, however his strength as a dribbler has seen him become a box-to-box midfielder who prefers to operate higher on the pitch. This has not only made him a major threat in front of goal, but also given him a chance to excel at goal and shot creating opportunities. Through his ability to take-on, he has 0.55 shot creating action per game which ranks in the top 1% of midfelders yet again.

While Thuram showcases signs of a good work ethic and high work rate, his defensive ability and possessional security can be put under scrutiny. Due to his high attempts at take-ons and dribbles, his inexperience means that he gets caught out mis controlling the passes he recieves or getting dispossessed in crucial areas. He gets dispossessed at least 1.17 times per game which is quite high for a player who is key in progressing play and creating chances for his team. Meaning that Thuram can be exploited when put under intense pressure. Subsequently, his ball recoveries are quite low for a box-to-box player, while operating in high areas means that his defensive intensity in the defensive third of the pitch is also low with only 0.52 tackles per game.

That said, it is important to take his roles and responsibility for Nice into consideration. This season, Thuram has started 19 times as a left centre midfield (LCM), 16 times as a centre defensive mid (DM) and once at left midfield against a strong heavyweight in PSG. His season heatmap suggests that he largely operates on the left-hand side both on and off the ball.

Based on data and the eye-test, Thuram actually plays an interestingly similar role and operates in similar areas as Joelinton and Joe Willock for Newcastle. All 3 are the exceptional ball-carriers who also specialize in late box arrivals and key third man runs in half spaces. The difference between the three is that Thuram can also be comfortable in operating from the middle of the pitch as the base of the build-up.

Overall, Thuram matches the profile required to operate in this Newcastle set up. With high intensity, work rate and impressive dribbling ability in dangerous zones, Thuram can potentially create a healthy competition amongst the likes of Joelinton, Willock and Longstaff while also adding cover for Bruno G. at the base of that midfield. At a market value of €32 Million with 2 years remaining in his contract, a profile like Khéphren Thuram would be a bargain and would even generate great returns. 

Recommended Option: Maxence Caqueret

If there is one role in midfield that Newcastle desperately requires, it is that of a facilitator, a robust dictator ; a deep-lying player that can emulate and perhaps improve on the role currently being successfully played by Bruno Guimarães. And there is no realistic player available that seems to be more suited to that role than his former Lyon teammate Maxence Caqueret.

At 23, Caqueret has made himself a mainstay at a Lyon side that desperately wanted to fill the void left by the brazilians Lucas Paqueta and Bruno Guimarães. Both having made their move to the Premier League, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Caqueret would be looking to do the same. Having signed a new contract for Lyon last season, he won’t be a cheap option but he could well be worth it, and let me explain why.

The Frenchman is a high prospect central midfielder who is known for his deep-lying playmaking skills and defensive intensity amongst other attributes. Caqueret is a leader in his group and orchestrates the play when in possession. Out of possession, he is smart, rigorous and efficient with his tackles with 2.98 tackles and 3.75 dribblers tackled per game. These numbers, when compared to amongst the best in Europe, stand very high. Similarly, considering how Newcastle operate and are looking to operate, Caqueret’s 7.34 ball recoveries per game is a number that stands out amongst the best in Europe.

In possession, he excels at carrying the ball into the final third by averaging 2.32 carries per 90, which puts him in the top 10% of midfielders for that attribute. And depending on game state, he tends to have a high number of touches wherever he operates. For instance, Lyon has largely been quite pragmatic in their approach this season under manager Laurent Blanc, which meant that Caqueret has had to operate as a ball-carrying 8 who is responsible for transitioning of midfield into attack as well as a playmaking 6 who dictates the play from the defensive third into attack. In both instances, he is deemed very reliable, technically secure and defensively sound.

One of his best traits, however, is his ability to contribute in attack through his high expected assists rate and his knack for high volume goal and shot creating actions. When compared to other midfielders, Caqueret is one of the best at shot-creating actions (SCA) through his passes with 2.61 SCA per 90. He also likes to play short passes into dangerous pockets and create layoffs for attackers to take dangerous shots. Caqueret averages 6.69 passes per 90 in the final third, indicating his knack for progressive passes from a deeper area.

His only outstanding weakness seems to be his lack of goal-scoring ability and aerial duels. While Caqueret possesses exceptional playmaking quality that has earned him 6 assists this season, he lacks the penetration and drive to be in goal scoring positions. Moreover, his 5’8 stature means that he loses out on his aerial duels which is an important aspect in the Premier League. But what he lacks in his stature he makes up with his tenacity and athleticism in defence by averaging 4.16 tackles and interceptions per 90.

Newcastle tops the metric in creating key passes from crosses and set pieces per game however they rank 6th when it comes to making key passes via live passes or through balls. This means that while the team is world-class at creating chances through crosses and set-pieces, they are only above average in creating changes from other aspects of play. If the team wants to consistently challenge in the league and in Europe, a player of Caqueret’s calibre can help raise those numbers considering he averages 1.59 key passes per game.

In my opinion, Caqueret will be the perfect midfielder for Eddie Howe’s Newcastle, where he can flourish in a more proactive, robust system that will minimize his weaknesses and maximise his strengths. He can operate in his preferred role as the orchestrator in midfield. His impressive ball-carrying and box-to-box abilities means that him, Joelinton and Bruno Guimarães can inter-change positions with their movements and create havoc for any man-marking team. Caqueret, despite his few limitations, would be of great value to this Newcastle side and would further elevate them into a heavy metal, possessional dominant side in Europe.

Right Winger

Newcastle United’s most natural right wingers include first choice-starter Miguel Almiron, Jacob Murphy and the out of favour Ryan Fraser. The list lacks the depth in quality and leaves for more to be desired. Almiron has been a key player for Eddie Howe this season. Having scored 11 goals in under 2000 minutes played, the Paraguayan international has become one of the most prolific wingers in Europe in terms of goal scoring.

Moreover, Almiron is key to the way Newcastle operate in attack; with his knack for making inward runs into half spaces and creating space for Trippier to cross in, Almiron has specialised in a pattern of play that he thrives in. Off-the ball, his work rate is immense, with 1.83 tackles per game he is one of the best wingers at his defensive duties. However, Almiron only has 1 assist this season, and his passing from wide areas is a lot to be desired. His reoccurring injury concerns also means that Jacob Murphy (who has become more than an impressive job as a back-up) would not be the back-up you would expect to start on a Champions League night.

What Newcastle may require at the right-wing position is either a player that can hold the width and carry the ball efficiently in wide areas to further create spaces in the middle. Tripper’s crosses from the right half space is usually the most dangerous and create high-value chances, while Bruno could also exploit those spaces. Or alternatively, you could have a profile that can improve on what Almiron brings to the table. A winger who specialises in cutting inside and creating spaces in the wide areas, but also someone who is efficient at producing key passes from central areas. Based on these factors and more, here are 3 realistic right winger profiles that would suit Eddie Howe’s Newcastle.

Option 1: Moussa Diaby

Moussa Diaby is a 23-year old versatile winger who plays for Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. He first caught attention from the youth ranks of Paris-Saint Germain at a young age until his promotion to the first team. Since joining Bayer Leverkusen in 2019, Diaby’s trajectory has only been upwards. Having become a mainstay as a forward, the French international has shown his versatality by playing at both wings as well as a second striker for Leverkusen. Diaby’s attributes at goal scoring and key passes means that he is looked at as a right-sided forward by his manager, Xabi Alonso.

Alonso’s 3-4-3 set up at Leverkusen allows Diaby to largely operate in the right forward role where he gets a lot of opportunities to thrive in while having a fantastic dynamic with right-wingback Jeremie Frimpong. His attacking freedom and positional fluidity in the system means that the set-up maximises his knack for being involved in attacks through dribbling, making key passes and shot-creating actions. With an average of 0.36 non-penalty xG (npxG) per game, he ranks in the top 11% percentile of wingers in that metric. Similarly, he ranks in the top 10% of wingers for an average of 0.29 expected assisted goals (xAG) per game. These are impressive numbers for a winger and this, along with his heatmap, inidicates that Diaby largely thrives as a right-sided forward more than a right winger.

Operating in these high areas also allows Diaby to use his explosiveness in attack, create chances and increase his xAG. For instance, he makes an average of 1.79 passes into the penalty area and 2.02 key passes per game. Further highlighting his importance in and around the penalty area. Under his first coach at Leverkusen, Diaby had a knack for making runs to create space for him to shoot from the left-wing position because thats where he used to operate. Now under Alonso, right wing-back Jeremie Frimpong specialises in making overlapping and underlapping runs which allows for Diaby to thrive in the space being created for him. Such off-ball movements, especially in transition, allow him to further flex his attacking ability with progressive ball-carrying and shot-creating actions.

At Newcastle this can be also be recreated since Eddie Howe’s men thrive in second and third man runs to generate space for chance-creating players. Alternatively, Diaby’s movements into the right half-space could also further create space for other players however, considering the fact that he has very few touches in the attacking third (outside the penalty) area, it suggests that Diaby does not play a major role in build-up unless it is in transitional phase. Which leads me to his weaknesses.

This has arguably been Diaby’s best season at Leverkusen, in a position and system that gives him the attacking freedom and relieves him of major defensive duties. With Tabsopa at right-centre-back and Frimpong at right-wingback, it minimises his lack of defensive intensity and poor defensive skills. Diaby’s tackles and interception stats are one of the worst in Europe’s top 5 leagues, even for a winger/forward.

Considering how much ‘defending as an 11’ is valued at Newcastle, this could be a major limitation for Diaby in Howe’s set up. Even Almiron’s defensive role at Newcastle shows how he contributes to their defensive solidity. This, coupled with questions surrounding the disparity in defensive intensity between the Premier League and Bundesliga, and how very few attack-minded players and forwards from the Bundesliga have fared well in England recently, the prospect of recruiting Diaby at Newcastle as the new right-winger can be questioned.

For the most part however, Diaby’s strengths outweigh his weaknesses. With Joelinton, Gordon and Willock also as options at left-wing, you could argue that there is a balance of the right profiles required that could maximise Diaby’s output as a right-sided attacker. However, one of the biggest mistakes any manager at the top level could make in the modern game, is to revolve his tactics around the strengths of a single player.

Options 2: Michael Olise

Michael Olise is quietly having one of his best seasons in top flight football. Crystal Palace have had a season of major ups and downs, having recently sacked Patrick Viera and re-appointed Roy Hodgson as manager. In the midst of this, Olise has seen a change in structure and role for his team. At 21, Olise has been deployed in attacking midfield, as a right-sided forward and at his preferred position at right wing. The French-man is one of the biggest prospects thriving in England and in demand at some of the best clubs in Europe.

Olise is an exciting right-winger who has a tendency to dribble into and create from central areas. He has a total of 10 goals+assists contribution for Crystal Palace this season, having played just over 2100 minutes. This means that while he averages an xG 0.11 non-penalty goals per game which is way below average, he is good at creating chances considering his average of 0.28 xAG (expected Assisted-goals) per game is in the top 16% in the top 5 leagues.

12 – Michael Olise has assisted 12 goals in the Premier League since the start of last season; the only player currently aged 21 or younger with more assists in the competition in this time is Bukayo Saka (17). Wand. pic.twitter.com/vxB5zk9Bir

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) April 9, 2023

Olise is technically sound, is of great possessional value and, unlike Moussa Diaby, likes the ball on his feet as opposed to in behind the defence. He likes to operate in the half-spaces and attract as much of an overload as he can before cutting in and switching the ball to the left-hand side. With 0.67 switches per game and 8.61 attempted long passes , he stands in the top 15% of wingers who switch the ball to the opposite side of play.

From a stylistic perspective, Olise is actually a lot more similar to Almiron’s profile than an explosive winger like Saint-Maximin or Mousa Diaby. Much like Almiron, his defensive numbers are quite impressive for a winger. He averages 2 tackles per game, out of which 1.81 tackles are won, which makes him one of the best wingers in defensive intensity. However, only 0.16 of those tackles being in the attacking third is not only indicative of Crystal Palace’s defensive structure as a team, but also of Olise’s pressing habits from the front. Even though it might be inflated due to Crystal Palace’s style of play and quality in the squad, an average of 2.83 tackles+interceptions per game, 1.69 blocks per game and 5.50 ball recoveries are all quite impressive and it is the kind of off-ball intensity that Eddie Howe would value.

One of his biggest weaknesses, however, is a crucial one. With only 2 goals this season, Olise is one of the worst wingers at goal scoring in the top leagues of Europe. His underlying shooting stats is evidence to observations that he doesn’t attempt at taking many shots and prefers to create chances through cut-backs and crosses. His average shooting distance per 90 being at only 20.60 yards suggests that Olise is not a high-volume shooter of the ball. While it is indicative of his good decision-making skills in the final third, coupled with Crystal Palace’s chance creation throughout the season, it can be seen as a major limitation for the Frenchman.

For the most part, Olise stands out due to the creative and possessional value he brings to the team. He is an elite set piece taker and crosser of the ball. And even though he likes to move into the half-space and the central spaces, Olise is of a great attacking threat from wide areas in the final third. He stands in the top 10% of wingers at crossing into the penalty area and in the top 15% for key passes made. Similarly, in these wide areas, he is more than good enough at taking-on defenders and progressing the play further up the pitch. With passing, dribbling and ball retention being some of his best attributes, he would be able to replicate the pattern of overloading on the right-half space with far more efficiency in Eddie Howe’s system.

Recommended Option: Samuel Chukwueze

The 23-year-old Samuel Chukwueze, in my opinion, is the most suited right winger profile for Eddie Howe’s Newcastle team and is the perfect player to improve on and provide healthy competition to Miguel Almiron. Chukwueze wasn’t a regular for Villareal at the beginning of the season. With former manager Unai Emery preferring a narrow style of play, wingers weren’t quite favoured under him.

However, after his departure to Aston Villa, Chukwueze has made the right-wing position his own under new manager Quique Setién. Since Setién’s appointment, Chukwueze has become a player with one of the most appearances and the most starts for Villareal. And with 8 goals and 8 assists in all competitions, he has definitely made a name for himself in Spain.

Chukwueze has attracted interests from various clubs in the Premier League over the course of last 2 seasons. With current interest being generated from the red side of North-London, who employ Bukayo Saka in the same position, it is safe to say that he is being recognised for not just his output but also his key strengths and attributes. Samuel Chukwueze is a player known for his elite dribbling, taking-on defenders in wide spaces and bursting with the ball into the penalty area. Attributes that mirror a player like Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin who operates as their left-winger. Having a player with such attributes on each side of the flank would make it easier for Newcastle to pin defences back and allow them to operate with a high-line.

His strengths are further highlighted in his possessional stats. Chukwueze is arguably a world-class winger at progressively carrying the ball and taking-on defenders. His 5.42 progressive carries per 90 and 3.19 carries into the penalty area shows his value at progressing the play in wide areas, however, his 6.75 attempted take-ons per 90 and 3.60 successful take-ons per 90 make him one of the best dribbling wingers in the world. Under Setien, he has increased in his output of ball-carrying and wriggling past defenders against low blocks. Chukwueze is also in the top 1% of wingers in shot-creating actions and goal-creating actions through take-ons. These are very impressive underlying metrics and a crucial ability for player that can be important for possessional dominant and counter-pressing side.

At Newcastle Chukwueze can fit right into the starting 11 and emulate the same movements made by Saint-Maximin on the left wing. Newcastle United average one of the highest number of attackers in the box in the top 5 leagues this season. That being said, they don’t have the desired number of open-play shots in the box to show for it. With touch-line wingers of Chukwueze and Saint-Maximin’s quality to pin back full-backs and take shot-creating actions, along with a rigid rest-defence, Newcastle can have the chance to dominate the attacking phase of play.

Chukwueze’s weaknesses are quite similar to Moussa Diaby’s. While his defensive intensity can be questioned, it is definitely not one of the worst in Europe for a winger that has largely operated in a front three this season. Under Emery, Chukwueze had a lot of defensive duties to do, so naturally his defensive stats could be inflated. That said, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Chukwueze, like most players, takes his time to adjust to the pace of the Premier League and therefore is eased into the starting 11 as opposed to starting on a regular basis.

His decent xG and xNPG metrics suggest that he is better than Almiron at finishing, while progressive carries suggest that he is better than Olise at pinning back the full-backs into wide spaces. If there is one thing Chukwueze will take time in developing, it is his involvement and movement in phases of build-up. At Villareal, his touches in the defensive third and the middle third are quite low compared to Almiron and Olise who have more of a role in their team’s build up. While this may be because of the former two’s knack for inverting into midfield, it is also something that Chukwueze will need to work on to thrive in the Premier League.

With only a year remaining in his contract and a market value of €20 Million, the Nigerian would be attainable and also understandably in-demand. A player of Chukwueze’s quality is floor-raising for any team in the top 5 divisions, and he would make his team-mates around him thrive. The likes of Trippier, Bruno G., Isak and Joelinton would also benefit from the Nigerian’s addition to the squad and Newcastle’s ball retention would increase in two-folds.

Conclusion

There is value to be had in the transfer market if the recruitment is smart and Newcastle have proven, over the last two windows, that they would not splash the cash for the sake of it. Howe has shown to target specific profile of players in his squad to fill the gaps and he is not afraid to take risks for these profiles, regardless of their return on investment (Dan Burn, Matt Targett, Chris Wood). While there is a clear understanding that Newcastle would require more than just 3 signings, the three reccomended options would be suitable profiles to elevate the quality in their squad and add dynamism to their style of play.

With the three recommended players, this is roughly how Newcastle would line up and there would be an added variation to the players in their build-up shape. Having more technically secure players in the team means that Newcastle could afford to have Trippier in a back three in their buildup, with Caqueret operating from the middle. Truffert and Chukweuze would be the perfect profiles to provide width in the team and stretch opposition defenses. Truffert could even operate in a back 3 or in the half spaces in midfield as part of the build-up. The rotational possibilities between Truffert, Joelinton and Saint-Maximin would be an exciting display.

Having 5 players in the opposition’s line of defence means that this is where the likes of Saint-Maximin, Bruno and even Joelinton could exploit the spaces created by the wide players. Caqueret’s dynamism in midfield would allow him easily interchange and switch positions with Bruno or Joelinton, to make life harder for man-markers. This, along with Isak’s knack for dropping deep and carrying the ball into the final third, could create opportunities for combinations of play and further allow space for the wide players to exploit.

Once the ball is progressed further up the pitch, it is all about Newcastle’s discipline at keeping the shape of their rest defence as narrow and rigid as possible. Numerical advantages in each phase of play and each space is important for ball retention when an attack has failed. While this is easier to depict on paper than executing it on the field, we have seen Newcastle under Howe thrive by creating similar shapes in rest defences and numerical advantages as discussed before.

Regardless of whether Newcastle United are in the Champions League spots at the end of the season, their activity in the summer will be one to watch. And with the players they have been linked with already, it seems that their recruitment could be more smart than spectacular. Eddie Howe’s transformation as a manager has been intriguing to watch as a neutral and it will be interesting to see how he will continue to execute his ideas with new players next season with what is expected to be a transformed Newcastle side aiming to be a regular amongst Europe’s elite.